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Wealth Capture

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Restructuring AI Ownership

Windfall Clause

A voluntary, ex-ante commitment by AI firms to donate a substantial portion of future profits if they exceed a high threshold could ensure that extreme economic gains are broadly shared rather than concentrated.

What it is:

Windfall clauses are voluntary, ex-ante commitments by firms to redistribute exceptional future profits that cross a predefined threshold, typically structured as conditional triggers that activate only when extraordinary economic gains materialize. In the context of transformative AI, windfall clauses address scenarios where a single firm or small group of firms achieves transformative capabilities (such as AGI or ASI) that generate economic returns far beyond normal business success, potentially capturing a substantial fraction of global GDP.

Recommended Reading:
Centre for the Governance of AI

The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good

January 2020

GovAI researchers developed the formal "Windfall Clause" proposal, under which AI companies would sign a legally binding agreement to donate a sliding scale of future profits once they exceed an extremely high threshold — specifically, revenues surpassing 1% of global GDP (roughly $1 trillion). Because the threshold is set so high, it costs companies nothing in the short term, making it easier for CEOs to sign as a credible signal of altruistic intent without angering shareholders today. They argue the clause is legally permissible under US corporate law because courts have consistently upheld corporate philanthropy under the business judgment rule.

Windfall Trust

The Missing Institution: A Global Dividend System for the Age of Transformative AI

December 2025

Anna Yelizarova's proposal goes beyond national SWFs, envisioning a globally scoped fund that would hold a collective equity stake in AI-driven economic surplus and convert returns into a universal dividend, grounding distribution in personhood rather than employment or nationality. Drawing on precedents such as Alaska, Norway, and the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians, she contends that dividend-based wealth sharing is more robust and egalitarian than individual share ownership, which risks reproducing inequality through unequal financial literacy and market exposure.

Real-world precedents:
  • While no company has yet signed a full "Windfall Clause," the structure resembles Advance Market Commitments (AMCs) used in vaccine development, where legally binding pledges are made before a product exists to shape market incentives.

  • Anthropic's corporate structure (a Public Benefit Corporation governed by a Long-Term Benefit Trust) serves as a partial precedent, as it legally permits the board to balance public benefit with shareholder interests and creates structural accountability for that mission, establishing a governance constraint similar to what the Windfall Clause attempts to achieve.

Securing humanity's AI future

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