Policy Snapshot
Giving citizens a direct ownership stakes in AI infrastructure via equity stakes
Scenario
Gradual
Augmentation
All Scenarios
Rapid
Automation
Scope
Near Term
(Volatility Risks)
Medium Term
(Transition Risks)
Long Term
(Structural Risks)
Governance Level
Local
National
International
Target
Entrepreneurs
Displaced Workers
Primary Actor
Governments
Private Actors
Procurement Policies
Public purchasing rules and preferences that shape AI markets and accelerate responsible deployment while attaching public benefit obligations to government-funded AI infrastructure.
What it is:
Government procurement policies for AI encompass the rules, standards, and practices governing how federal agencies acquire and manage AI systems and services. With federal AI spending totaling $5.6 billion across fiscal years 2022–2024 and generative AI use cases inside agencies increasing nine-fold in just twelve months, procurement decisions increasingly shape which AI companies succeed, what capabilities get developed, and whether AI serves public interests.
Beyond simply buying technology, procurement frameworks can function as industrial policy: establishing domestic preference requirements that support American AI development; mandating interoperability standards that prevent vendor lock-in and market concentration; requiring transparency disclosures that inform downstream regulation; and embedding labor and ethical standards into contract terms.
Recommended Reading:
Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, and Simon Johnson
Building Pro-Worker Artificial Intelligence
February 2026
Acemoglu, Autor, and Johnson argue that healthcare and education are the two sectors where pro-worker AI has the greatest potential, and where government has the most leverage. Public funding accounts for roughly 43% of U.S. healthcare spending and about 92% of K-12 education expenditure, giving policymakers significant influence over the direction of AI adoption. They propose using procurement, reimbursement policy — such as Medicare and Medicaid payment rules for AI-assisted care delivered by non-physician professionals — and public R&D funding to steer innovation toward tools that complement rather than replace workers. The authors also advocate DARPA-style challenge prizes as an alternative to traditional procure-to-specification contracts, encouraging developers to compete to build AI systems that expand worker capabilities.
America's AI Action Plan
July 2025
On procurement, the Plan directs the General Services Administration (GSA) to create an "AI procurement toolbox" enabling uniform adoption across agencies to the greatest extent practicable, establishes an "Advanced Technology Transfer and Capability Sharing Program" for rapid cross-agency capability transfer, and calls for piloting AI to improve public service delivery through "High Impact Service Providers."
UK Government AI Playbook
February 2025
The UK's comprehensive guidance for public sector AI adoption establishes ten principles governing responsible government use, with detailed procurement guidance covering routes to market (frameworks, Dynamic Purchasing Systems), specification requirements, and alignment with data ethics frameworks. It addresses vendor lock-in, intellectual property rights, bias mitigation requirements, and ongoing support obligations. The Playbook's emphasis on the Algorithmic Transparency Recording Standard (ATRS) for public disclosure and its cautionary guidance on "use cases to avoid" (including fully automated decision-making in high-risk areas) offers a useful comparative framework to the current U.S. approach, which prioritizes acceleration over precaution.
Open Contracting Partnership
The surprising shifts in how the public sector is buying AI, and what policymakers can do about it
November 2025
This analysis identifies three key trends in public sector AI procurement: the dominance of off-the-shelf licenses over custom builds for efficiency-driven use cases, the shift toward centralized enterprise-wide procurement, and the rise of "shadow AI" entering government through free pilots, grants, and features embedded in existing tools that bypass formal procurement oversight. The report recommends that governments develop comprehensive AI strategies identifying high-ROI use cases (citing Seattle's 2025-2026 AI Plan as a model), build in-house technical capacity to evaluate vendors and manage deployments, and use procurement as a "driver of innovation" rather than passive purchasing.
Real-world precedents:
Historically, federal procurement has shaped technology markets through mechanisms like DARPA's research funding that seeded the ARPANET beginning in 1969 and evolved into today's internet.
In healthcare, the Medicare and Medicaid EHR Incentive Programs distributed $27 billion in payments to drive electronic health record adoption, transforming the health IT industry.
NASA's procurement framework for the Apollo Program imposed stringent reliability, safety, and performance requirements that substantially enhanced both private sector competition and aerospace technological reliability while maintaining safety parameters in mission-critical contexts.
The Trump administration designated Anthropic a "supply chain risk" and ordered all federal agencies to cease using its AI models after the company refused to remove contract provisions prohibiting autonomous weapons and mass surveillance of US citizens. The designation required defense contractors to certify they do not use Anthropic's models, disrupting hundreds of enterprise relationships. The episode demonstrates the coercive power of procurement decisions over AI companies, and raises unresolved questions about whether governments should be able to use supply chain designations to override a company's safety commitments.
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