Why Scenario Planning?
The future of AI and economics isn't a single predetermined path. It is a landscape of possibilities, and one of the most uncertain periods in recent history.
We treat AI-driven economic disruption the way we approach pandemic preparedness: the most consequential scenarios aren't always the most probable ones. If we only plan for conservative, incremental change, we risk being catastrophically underprepared for more transformative outcomes.
Scenario planning helps us:
Expand our collective imagination beyond business-as-usual projections
Stress-test policies against a range of futures, not just one forecast
Identify where our institutions might break and what needs reinforcing now
Build societal resilience by preparing for economic shocks before they arrive
Surface the questions, pressure points, and choices that will matter most
Build common vocabulary across economists, technologists, policymakers, and other communities
Two Axis that Guide Everything
Together, they define a simple 2×2 map of possible AI-driven economic futures. Most of the common visions of the future fall into different regions of this space, and different regions imply very different policy responses.
How concentrated are the gains from AI?
At one end, the economic gains from AI are widely distributed. Strong competition keeps prices low and access high, with value spread across many firms at the application layer, similar to how value spread with the internet. At the other end, the gains are highly concentrated, captured by a small number of companies, actors, or jurisdictions - in a winner take all dynamic.
This axis matters because it shapes who has the resources to fund public responses. Broadly distributed gains enable many pathways for support. Highly concentrated gains raise sharper questions about redistribution, governance, and political power.
Human Augmentation Paradigm
Concentrated Gains
Human Replacement Paradigm
Concentrated Gains
Human Augmentation Paradigm
Diffuse Gains
Human Replacement Paradigm
Diffuse Gains
The specific stories and details of our scenarios vary by exercise. We do not always use the same worlds, and sometimes we focus on only one of these dimensions. But these two variables — the size of the shock and the concentration of wealth — consistently reappear as the most important forces shaping which futures are plausible and which interventions are possible.
How large is the economic shock from AI?
At one end, AI mainly augments human work, raising productivity while leaving most people employed in some form. At the other end, AI replaces large portions of human labor, sharply reducing the need for work and creating a much more radical break with today’s economy.
This axis is a useful proxy for how deep the intervention may need to be to support people’s livelihoods. Modest disruption can often be handled by existing institutions. Large-scale displacement may require entirely new economic arrangements.
Our Approach : Ideal Types and Worldbuilding
Our scenarios are not forecasts. They are ideal types, in the Weberian sense: deliberately simplified worlds that exaggerate certain dynamics in order to make underlying forces visible.
In practice, this means:
Pinning different futures next to one another
Treating assumptions as scaffolding, not commitments
The key is contrast. The more differences between the scenarios, the better. Similar-sounding scenarios don't help us explore the possibility space or stress-test our thinking.
It is much easier to challenge a concrete world than to reason from a blank page. The narratives and worldbuilding elements are there to be tested, questioned, and designed to be helpfully wrong in their concreteness.
Importantly, these scenarios are not mutually exclusive. Societies may begin on one trajectory and later slide into another. Part of this work is developing indicators that help us reason about which future we may be moving toward, and how quickly.
Positive and normative exploration
Depending on the audience, scenarios can balance positive economics and normative economics in different ways.
Positive Economics
What will happen?
These scenarios focus on describing likely effects and outcomes given certain conditions, helping us understand economic dynamics in the absence of intervention. They are useful in identifying vulnerabilities and where our systems strain.
Normative Economics
What should we do?
These scenarios center on interventions, policies, and choices, exploring what actions might be desirable or necessary given certain conditions. They are useful in identifying foreground policy design, values, and trade-offs.
Economists, policymakers, and civil society actors often benefit from different mixes of these perspectives. Our workshops are designed to adjust that balance deliberately.
Beyond Equilibrium: The Transition Challenge
Ideal types are useful for clarifying end states and identifying broad patterns. They help build intuition about how different economic systems might function. However, an important challenge remains: explaining how we move from today’s economy to those possible futures. Understanding these transition paths will be a key focus of future work at Windfall.
Charting a robust course between these possible futures requires grappling with additional questions, including:
How fast will progress actually unfold?
How much time will our institutions have to respond?
What's the right sequence for policy interventions?
What feedback loops and cascading effects might we encounter along the way?
The scenarios help us see the destinations. The next phase of our work focuses on mapping the journeys. Economists excel at thinking in terms of equilibria. We're planning to complement with the narrative expertise of science fiction writers who specialize in thinking through complex technological and social transitions.
Preparedness is not about predicting the future. It is about being ready for more than one.
What’s Next for Windfall
Windfall’s next phase of work will focus on convening and listening. We will be running a series of workshops to engage people across different geographies in thinking through the economic implications of transformative AI. These workshops are designed to build shared understanding and create bridges between technologists, economists, policymakers, civil society, and other communities that are often siloed from one another.
Our upcoming workshops will begin in London and Washington, DC, with plans to expand to additional regions. We are actively exploring workshops in the Global South and Southeast Asia, where perspectives on AI, economic disruption, and redistribution are often underrepresented in global conversations.
We are also exploring a collaboration with the Partnership on AI on a joint workshop this spring, followed by a public report later in the year. In this collaboration, Partnership on AI will lead work on drivers and recommended actions, while Windfall focuses on scenario development and facilitation.
To learn more about our facilitation or exercise booklets, get in touch at scenarios@windfalltrust.org